Ocean-Effect Snow Set Up in England Next Week

Yesterday, while I was analyzing data for snow chances in England next week, I spent extra time doing an in-depth analysis by incorporating BUFKIT's lake-effect snow algorithms. In order to do the analysis, I had to look up sea surface temperatures in the North Sea between Norway and England, which are in the +4 to +8C range. Once I had that information, I ran through the BUFKIT forecast soundings to see what the "lake-induced" CAPEs are forecast to be, and I found values up to nearly 500 J/Kg by 9 p.m. Tuesday. The main uncertainty at this point is where the strongest and most persistent snow bands set up, which will lead to higher than typical snow accumulations across England.

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Forecast Uncertainty and Actionable Intelligence

On Friday, March 16, 2018, I provided an updated forecast to a client stating that on Tuesday, March 20, there was a threat for 3" or more snow in northern parts of their area of concern, a threat for minor to moderate icing (thin glaze to as much as 0.10-0.20" possible) due to freezing rain in northwestern parts of their area, and a threat for 1" or more rainfall in southeastern parts of their area. All three of these concerns ended up happening in the areas I highlighted. At the time, looking five days out, there remained considerable uncertainty about which precipitation type would be most dominant. In addition, factor in the late March timing, meaning lighter snow rates would be slower to accumulate (if at all). The heavier snow rates, 1-2"/hr, would be sufficient. However the occurrence of such rates would be within localized bands, which are difficult to pinpoint where they would set up even 24 hours ahead of time, but nearly impossible five days ahead. From...

The Thrill of Victory... and the Agony of Defeat

Weather forecasting sometimes feels like a competition to figure out what the atmosphere is going to do next. The thrill of victory comes not only when you nail a forecast, but also in the way that it helps the user make a decision that saves them time or money. The agony of defeat can be harsh, especially when your erroneous forecast is out there for everyone to see, and of course everyone will be sure to point out just how wrong you were.

World Cup Weather

As the 2018 World Cup in Russia approaches, I thought it would be timely to blog about the weather pattern leading up to the opening match which will take place on June 14. My company, Earth Networks, provides an excellent viewing platform called Sferic Maps, which enables me to plot various weather data as well as plot the venues where the matches will be played. On today's weather map, high pressure is building in across western Russia as a cold front pushes southward into Georgia to Azerbaijan and northern Turkey. A low pressure will track over central Russia very near Yekaterinburg, the east-most venue, heading south into northern Kazakhstan. The air mass with the low pressure is rather cold, with sub-freezing temperatures anticipated Saturday morning. Brr!

Wide World of Weather

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