Wide World of Weather

Yesterday, while I was analyzing data for snow chances in England next week, I spent extra time doing an in-depth analysis by incorporating BUFKIT's lake-effect snow algorithms. In order to do the analysis, I had to look up sea surface temperatures in the North Sea between Norway and England, which are in the +4 to +8C range. Once I had that information, I ran through the BUFKIT forecast soundings to see what the "lake-induced" CAPEs are forecast to be, and I found values up to nearly 500 J/Kg by 9 p.m. Tuesday. The main uncertainty at this point is where the strongest and most persistent snow bands set up, which will lead to higher than typical snow accumulations across England.

Tropical Cyclone Gita ripped Tonga with Category 4 ferocity. Gita is currently moving west, staying south of Fiji. Here are a couple stories covering the impact to Tonga: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-13/tonga-cyclone-gita-category-four-causes-widespread-damage/9425298 https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2018/02/12/tropical-cyclone-gita-blasts-tiny-south-pacific-island-nation-tonga-145-mph-winds/329224002/

Brisk winds have interrupted events on the mountain thus far, but favorable conditions are anticipated on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Conditions may be marginal at times on the other days. As for snow, not much in the forecast. A few flurries and snow showers possible at times, especially on Wednesday.

Couldn't pass up posting this awesome view of ice-covered Lake Erie. 1km Visible Satellite at 10:07 a.m. EST, February 12, 2018

Checking the observations, it is a crisp 12 degrees on the mountain while 32 in the coastal areas. Winds are creating some delays on the ski jump hill. Latest reading at Taegwallyong was 14 mph, but of course the wind speed will vary a bit up and down. Top gust of 37 mph earlier on the mountain. Checking through the forecast data, a couple of waves will move through and may bring occasional flurries and snow showers. The first wave comes through tonight and exits Sunday. The second wave comes across Monday and exits Tuesday. Brisk winds are anticipated Sunday, so any wind-sensitive activities could face delays.

If you haven't heard about Cebile, it's probably due to the storm tracking over the southern Indian Ocean well east of Madagascar. Cebile was previously a Category 4 hurricane but has since weakened to Category 2 (80 kts, 960 mb). For further information on Cebile or future storms in this part of the world, check out the MeteoFrance website at: http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours.