Weather forecasting sometimes feels like a competition to figure out what the atmosphere is going to do next. The thrill of victory comes not only when you nail a forecast, but also in the way that it helps the user make a decision that saves them time or money. The agony of defeat can be harsh, especially when your erroneous forecast is out there for everyone to see, and of course everyone will be sure to point out just how wrong you were.
On Friday, March 16, 2018, I provided an updated forecast to a client stating that on Tuesday, March 20, there was a threat for 3" or more snow in northern parts of their area of concern, a threat for minor to moderate icing (thin glaze to as much as 0.10-0.20" possible) due to freezing rain in northwestern parts of their area, and a threat for 1" or more rainfall in southeastern parts of their area. All three of these concerns ended up happening in the areas I highlighted. At the time, looking five days out, there remained considerable uncertainty about which precipitation type would be most dominant. In addition, factor in the late March timing, meaning lighter snow rates would be slower to accumulate (if at all). The heavier snow rates, 1-2"/hr, would be sufficient. However the occurrence of such rates would be within localized bands, which are difficult to pinpoint where they would set up even 24 hours ahead of time, but nearly impossible five days ahead. From...
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