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Showing posts from March, 2018

Forecast Uncertainty and Actionable Intelligence

On Friday, March 16, 2018, I provided an updated forecast to a client stating that on Tuesday, March 20, there was a threat for 3" or more snow in northern parts of their area of concern, a threat for minor to moderate icing (thin glaze to as much as 0.10-0.20" possible) due to freezing rain in northwestern parts of their area, and a threat for 1" or more rainfall in southeastern parts of their area. All three of these concerns ended up happening in the areas I highlighted. At the time, looking five days out, there remained considerable uncertainty about which precipitation type would be most dominant. In addition, factor in the late March timing, meaning lighter snow rates would be slower to accumulate (if at all). The heavier snow rates, 1-2"/hr, would be sufficient. However the occurrence of such rates would be within localized bands, which are difficult to pinpoint where they would set up even 24 hours ahead of time, but nearly impossible five days ahead. From...

The Brian Williams Storm Chase

Once upon a time I visited a community impacted by a tornado. Once upon a time I arrived in a community just after it had been hit by a tornado. Once upon a time I spotted a tornado and took video footage as it hit a community. Once upon a time I was in a community when a tornado approached. I took video footage throughout the event and posted it on YouTube. Once upon a time I was in a community when a tornado approached. As I took video footage, my life hung in the balance as twigs, boards, roofing material and glass flew everywhere. I barely escaped safely and then promptly posted my harrowing experience on YouTube