Checking the observations, it is a crisp 12 degrees on the mountain while 32 in the coastal areas. Winds are creating some delays on the ski jump hill. Latest reading at Taegwallyong was 14 mph, but of course the wind speed will vary a bit up and down. Top gust of 37 mph earlier on the mountain. Checking through the forecast data, a couple of waves will move through and may bring occasional flurries and snow showers. The first wave comes through tonight and exits Sunday. The second wave comes across Monday and exits Tuesday. Brisk winds are anticipated Sunday, so any wind-sensitive activities could face delays.
On Friday, March 16, 2018, I provided an updated forecast to a client stating that on Tuesday, March 20, there was a threat for 3" or more snow in northern parts of their area of concern, a threat for minor to moderate icing (thin glaze to as much as 0.10-0.20" possible) due to freezing rain in northwestern parts of their area, and a threat for 1" or more rainfall in southeastern parts of their area. All three of these concerns ended up happening in the areas I highlighted. At the time, looking five days out, there remained considerable uncertainty about which precipitation type would be most dominant. In addition, factor in the late March timing, meaning lighter snow rates would be slower to accumulate (if at all). The heavier snow rates, 1-2"/hr, would be sufficient. However the occurrence of such rates would be within localized bands, which are difficult to pinpoint where they would set up even 24 hours ahead of time, but nearly impossible five days ahead. From...
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